Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,076$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(187 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,062.0}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,062.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $69$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(4.49 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{79.3}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 31.0)}}\) (asimptote \(79.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $659$ on 2020-04-30

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $29,586$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(4.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,792.5}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 30.1)}}\) (asimptote \(28,792.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,737$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(124 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,738.0}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 35.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,738.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,449$ on 2020-04-30

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $205,463$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(2.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{202,663.9}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(202,663.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,967$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(2.29 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,765.2}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 39.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,765.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $101,551$ on 2020-04-30

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,069,424$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(5.78 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,127,291.8}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,127,291.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $62,996$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(2.59 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{67,472.3}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(67,472.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $852,481$ on 2020-04-30

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $172,481$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(6.8 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{185,092.4}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 41.7)}}\) (asimptote \(185,092.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26,842$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,077.1}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(28,077.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $144,780$ on 2020-04-30

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $21,092$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(905 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,537.3}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 47.9)}}\) (asimptote \(25,537.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,586$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(108 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,957.1}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,957.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,501$ on 2020-04-30

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $163,009$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.82 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{158,578.0}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 32.7)}}\) (asimptote \(158,578.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,623$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(428 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,101.9}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 32.1)}}\) (asimptote \(7,101.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,886$ on 2020-04-30

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Iceland recovered 89%
Thailand recovered 85%
Luxembourg recovered 83%
Australia recovered 81%
Korea, South recovered 81%
Austria recovered 79%
New Zealand recovered 78%
Burkina Faso recovered 70%
Switzerland recovered 69%
Malta recovered 69%
Taiwan* recovered 68%
Iran recovered 61%
Germany recovered 55%
Niger recovered 54%
Andorra recovered 53%
Croatia recovered 48%
Djibouti recovered 46%
Azerbaijan recovered 46%
Denmark recovered 44%
Uzbekistan recovered 34%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 34%
Costa Rica recovered 34%
North Macedonia recovered 33%
Malaysia recovered 33%
Israel recovered 27%
Spain recovered 24%
Czechia recovered 23%
Slovakia recovered 17%
Turkey recovered 16%
Cuba recovered 11%
Italy recovered 6%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,956$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(4.65 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(87.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,213.8}{1 + 10^{-0.092 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,213.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,637$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,898.8}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 22.5)}}\) (asimptote \(3,898.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $796$ on 2020-04-30

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,797$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(304 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,802.2}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,802.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.83 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.7}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 23.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $117$ on 2020-04-30

Thailand⮸

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,954$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(728 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,868.0}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 18.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,868.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $54$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(18.6 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53.3}{1 + 10^{-0.080 (t - 10.0)}}\) (asimptote \(53.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $216$ on 2020-04-30

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,784$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(519 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,634.2}{1 + 10^{-0.082 (t - 30.0)}}\) (asimptote \(3,634.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $90$ on 2020-04-30

Best fit exponential: \(12.3 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90.8}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 25.3)}}\) (asimptote \(90.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $481$ on 2020-04-30